There are circumstances and match-up styles in which I am very interested in taking Lin Zhu as an underdog. This is not one of those circumstances.
It will be a cautious start to 2021, with only a 1 unit selection here. Why? Well, we haven’t seen some of these players in action since March 2020, with many opting to skip the tour restart safe in the knowledge of protected ranking points.
Here we have a match-up of one player who returned to the tour late in 2020 (Tomljanovic) and one who skipped it (Zhu). When I first saw these two slated to meet in round one, I looked at the numbers to see where I thought this market would fall. Personally, I had the Australian giving up 4 games in this one, so to see her at -2.5 games looks to be a spot worthy of a small stake.
Whilst Zhu can redline and produce some exceptional tennis, the consistency is the biggest question mark over her game now in my opinion. There is the ability to see it all within a small sample size, so I would be wanting to see a larger head to head price to be getting involved here.
Whilst the form of Tomljanovic was poor on the tour return, it is worth noting the quality of opponent throughout that run. To face Kerber and Sakkari at the US and French Open’s respectively was an unfortunate position, however this match-up, against a bigger striker of the ball that can be on the erratic side, looks favourable.
As I said, keep the staking low whilst we gauge where players are at in terms of form. Happy to play the -2.5 games for 1 unit, as this has the potential of covering in 2 or 3 sets.
1 unit Tomljanovic -2.5 games vs Zhu at $1.83 at Bet365 (also would play -3.5 games at $1.95+)