ATP Finals Preview: Medvedev vs Schwartzman

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Medvedev vs Schwartzman (Approx 07:00am AEDT)

This is likely to be my last significant play for 2020. It has been a crazy year on a worldwide but also a personal level. I have learnt more this year about myself and I cannot wait to see what 2021 has in store for Ace Previews as a business.

Put simply, Daniil Medvedev doesn’t need to win today. He is assured of top position in the group, courtesy of straight set wins over Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev. He now meets Diego Schwartzman, who has looked pretty serviceable through his first two matches, both losses to the same players. You could make a case that there is no benefit for Schwartzman winning here, and that is true.

However, Schwartzman isn’t scheduled to play Rafael Nadal in an already-confirmed semi final. That is the case for Medvedev, who will surely have his mind on Saturday.

Now I have placed this bet for 4 units, however as I have been writing this, it appears as though the scheduling that was originally harsher for Medvedev (playing the afternoon against Nadal) is no longer the case. I will follow through with the four units as that is what I was intending, however the confidence has dropped a touch with the scheduling change. I don’t see the Russian wanting to get involved in a particularly long match with Diego, and at $4+ in this situation it is more than worth a play.

Whilst there are bonuses for players going through undefeated in the tournament, I would say that Medvedev would be far more inclined to be in great shape against Nadal than put it all on the line today against Schwartzman. Another example of this was Dominic Thiem today, who did not have to win against Andrey Rublev. The price itself has come as a result of Medvedev’s big win over Schwartzman in Paris, however it is worth noting that Schwartzman was incredibly competitive in their ATP Cup match at the start of the year, earning double the break point opportunities in a three set loss.

It is a tricky situation I admit, given Medvedev’s one-sided win the other week, however without that result we don’t have the odds for Diego being so high in such a situation.  I am happy to make the play at the odds regardless of the result, and it looks to be a nice value spot to finish the year in terms of larger players.

Thanks for following along for what was another profitable year on the tennis.

Suggested Bet

4 units Schwartzman to defeat Medvedev at $4.20 at Topsport ($4.35 at Unibet/$4.30 Betfair/$4.50 Bet365 with different rules)

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