Martinez vs Benchetrit (Approx 09:00pm AEDT)
I think Pedro Martinez is a little short in the betting today, and that is before you consider his name is currently on the ATP Paris Masters 1000 qualifying list.
Whilst the temptation of an ATP 250 or even a 500 may not be enough to sway players away in some instances, it is worth knowing that a player that is eliminated in the first round of qualifying in Paris will earn more money than the overall winner of the Marbella Challenger. Even if Martinez were to win today, that is something to keep an eye on in the next 48 hours.
I think the conditions in Marbella, as far as clay conditions go, suit Benchetrit a little more than most. He won as an underdog in round 1, overcoming Rune putting 70% of first serves into play whilst only being able to achieve 50% himself. He showed good fight, coming from a set down to take the victory 1-6 6-4 6-4 in just under 2 hours.
Part of the reason why I have Benchetrit rated closer to $4 than his current quote of up to $7 is the fact there is such a significant divide between the best and his worst level of Pedro Martinez. That inconsistency doesn’t appear to have been built into the odds today. He looked very good in round 1 against Martinez Vilella, who experienced a steep drop-off in form from his last fortnight on the tour.
Whilst there is every possibly Martinez brings his best again and wins here comfortably, I do feel Benchetrit wins this more than 14.2% of the time as current odds suggest. I am not overly keen to get involved with Martinez this week given there is the Paris qualifying carrot currently being dangled in front of him. You take that away and Benchetrit is still value in these conditions though, and worth a 1.5 unit selection.
Suggested Bet
1.5 units Benchetrit to win at $7 at Bet365
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