Machac vs Ferreira SIlva (Approx 06:00pm AEST)
I think we may have a little bit of value on the Czech teenager making the main draw today.
I have written about Tomas Machac a couple of times recently, as he continues to impress on the clay at Challenger level. His form stacks up relatively well over the last few weeks, with his most recent losses coming to Aslan Karatsev and Robin Haase, both in solid form. I was a little concerned regarding his withdrawal from a lower level tournament last week. It looks to have been a precaution however, with Machac producing straight set wins over Lenz and Soeda on his way to the final match. He has impressed in both matches, having only dropped serve twice against Lenz, and his serve stats line up very well with his recent form.
Ferreira Silva has also looked pretty solid at times on his way through to the final round, with a dominant win against wayward Viktor Troicki and claiming two tiebreaks against Joao Menezes. Winners were not the order of the day against Menezes, with both players combining for 39 winners and 72 unforced errors for the match. Whilst Ferreira Silva has been the beneficiary of high unforced error counts from both opponents this week, I just do not see that unfolding today off the recent form of Machac.
The nerves that are associated with qualifying for a grand slam will be in full effect today, so staking on a teenager here will be lower. I have Machac priced $1.66 here, so there is value in his price, even with the situation, for a 1.5 unit selection.
Suggested Bet
1.5 units Machac to defeat Ferreira Silva at $1.90 at Bet365
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