Martinez vs Shapovalov (Approx 07:00pm AEST)
I will keep this short and sweet, as the Spaniard looks to be value today.
I personally cannot see myself jumping into the short price here for the Canadian, regardless of how well he won in round 1 against Guido Pella. The formlines around Pella haven’t been great (I found that out the hard way last week against Feliciano Lopez), so to have Shapovalov at sub $1.35 against a competent claycourter in Pedro Martinez, who defeated Sam Querrey in straight sets, seems a little off.
Whilst the $3.90 here for Martinez does look value, and worth a 0.5 unit selection, I am going to focus moreso on the + game handicap here. You should be able to get upwards of $2.10 for the + games, so it looks to be a solid play in the situation. This looks to be a letdown spot for Shapovalov coming off a heavy schedule, and there isn’t a lot of clay form over the last few years outside of a run in Madrid in 2018 that is enticing me into the short odds.
I said yesterday the form around Pella was poor, and that was when opposing Nishioka against Dimitrov. I am happy to make a 1.5 unit / 0.5 unit split on the game handicap and head to head win for the Spaniard. He looks to still be underrated at ATP level on clay and I am happy to try and take advantage.
1.5 units Martinez +3.5 games at $2.12 at Topsport
0.5 units Martinez to win at $3.75 at Bet365
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