ATP Rome Preview: Martinez vs Shapovalov

Posted on

Martinez vs Shapovalov (Approx 07:00pm AEST)

I will keep this short and sweet, as the Spaniard looks to be value today. 

I personally cannot see myself jumping into the short price here for the Canadian, regardless of how well he won in round 1 against Guido Pella. The formlines around Pella haven’t been great (I found that out the hard way last week against Feliciano Lopez), so to have Shapovalov at sub $1.35 against a competent claycourter in Pedro Martinez, who defeated Sam Querrey in straight sets, seems a little off.

Whilst the $3.90 here for Martinez does look value, and worth a 0.5 unit selection, I am going to focus moreso on the + game handicap here. You should be able to get upwards of $2.10 for the + games, so it looks to be a solid play in the situation. This looks to be a letdown spot for Shapovalov coming off a heavy schedule, and there isn’t a lot of clay form over the last few years outside of a run in Madrid in 2018 that is enticing me into the short odds.

I said yesterday the form around Pella was poor, and that was when opposing Nishioka against Dimitrov. I am happy to make a 1.5 unit / 0.5 unit split on the game handicap and head to head win for the Spaniard. He looks to still be underrated at ATP level on clay and I am happy to try and take advantage. 

Suggested Bets

1.5 units Martinez +3.5 games at $2.12 at Topsport
0.5 units Martinez to win at $3.75 at Bet365

CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP TO PUBLC – It is free and will support the ongoing work of Ace Previews

You will notice the preview takes you to a page via a new search engine called PUBLC, who have approached me regarding uploading my content to their search engine. The more people that sign up to a free account and continue to read my work, the more accessible I will be able to make my content moving forward.

Creating an account takes 30 seconds, however it will allow your support of my work to be ongoing. . Please ensure you are signed in when clicking through to my articles. Your support is greatly appreciated.

For more information on PUBLC, click here.

As always, if you have any questions, please do not hesitate to get in touch.