Here is a continuation of plays for today:
Rybakina vs Alexandrova (Approx 07:00pm AEST)
We discussed this one in a bit of detail on the stream, however the more I look at this match, the more I am inclined to lean towards Rybakina at her current price.
These two met and had a close battle in the New York bubble, with Alexandrova escaping in two incredibly tight sets. It came out after the match that Rybakina had not picked up a racquet for an extended period of the tour suspension due to being in lockdown in her apartment, so I would imagine that as the tournaments for the rest of 2020, we will see Rybakina really build into her overall performances.
When you consider the switch over to the European clay, where Rybakina’s form over the last 12-18 months is far superior, I cannot let her go around today without a play, especially with her price sitting around $1.70.
Happy to play this one for 2 units.
2 units Rybakina to defeat Alexandrova at $1.70 at Topsport ($1.71 at Betfair minus commission)
Please note: I also do not mind the small games handicap here, and I would play that for 1.5 units for those looking for an alternative.
ATP Rome Qualifying
Ymer vs Bagnis (Approx 08:00pm AEST)
After saving FIVE match points in the first round of qualifying, we saw a significant uptick in form from Mikael Ymer in the second, coming from a break down in each set to defeat Marc Polmans 6-4 6-4. Sometimes saving match points in an earlier round can lead to a player loosening their shoulders a touch, with the feeling of ‘playing with house money’ after their previous near-miss defeat.
That isn’t always the case, however I feel as though the type of match-up Facundo Bagnis is facing here is in no way as simple as bookmakers currently suggest. I was on Bagnis the other day against Tommy Paul, and the slow start and struggle at times from Bagnis was a little concerning in my opinion. It stopped me from jumping into his price yesterday against James Duckworth, where he against got away with a slow start to claim victory.
Whilst Paul and Duckworth don’t have a significant amount of comfort on the clay, Ymer looks far more comfortable on the surface. I think Bagnis will find the going here far more difficult, and I cannot quite get my head around his price being longer against Tommy Paul than Ymer on their current clay (and overall) levels. For mine, I will take a 1 unit selection on Ymer to cause an upset and progress to the main draw.
1 unit Ymer to defeat Bagnis at $2.22 at Topsport
ATP Rome Qualifying
Dzumhur vs Coria (Approx 08:00pm AEST)
From what I have seen from both players this week, the logical play here seems to be Dzumhur at the -3 game handicap, In a motivated M1000 qualifying draw, I am happy to side with Dzumhur – I have Coria pegged as a Challenger level claycourter who lacks the weapons to be able to take control of enough matches. Dzumhur has control here, and should be able to regularly pressure the serve of Coria, so the -3 games appeals.
1 unit Dzumhur -3 games vs Coria at $1.86 at Topsport
ATP Rome Qualifying
Cecchinato vs Kovalik (Approx 08:00pm AEST)
I am willing to completely ignore the Cecchinato loss to Tabilo the other day, considering the loss allowed Cecchinato the ability to participate in qualifying in Rome. When you take that match out of his recent form, I am pretty comfortable to side with the Italian at the -2.5 game handicap. The Kovalik win over Bedene also looks to have been a tad overrated, with Bedene struggling first up on the clay transitioning back from the US Open.
If we see Cecchinato at his best today, and I assume we will at a Masters 1000 Qualifying situation, then I am happy to back him in at the game handicap,
1.5 units Cecchinato -2.5 games vs Kovalik at $1.93 at Topsport
Please Note: If you do not have game handicaps available for Dzumhur and Cecchinato, I would consider a multi/parlay of the two at their ML prices.