Brady vs Bellis (Approx 02:30am AEST)
Like the Garcia and McNally plays of the last two days, we have a similar pattern emerging here again.
We have Bellis coming off a tricky win against a playing style she struggles with, moving on to face a player with a style that suits her game very well. After a three set win over Tamara Korpatsch in round 1, Bellis will much prefer the extra pace on the ball she will see from Brady today.
Whilst Brady did defeat Anna Blinkova in straight sets in round 1, I have been pretty consistent in my belief that Blinkova has lost her form over the tour break. 48% of first serves into play from the Russian didn’t help either, with Brady running away with it 6-3 6-2. Have the books overrated the last couple of weeks from Brady? Perhaps. She doesn’t appear to have commanded a value betting price through her last couple of matches.
The counter-punch game of Bellis will be crucial here. She has the movement and the shots to trouble Brady on a faster hardcourt, far more than Brady has seen from other counter-punch players on hardcourt over the last fortnight. A small play, however I am happy to take Bellis to win as an underdog for 1 unit.
Note: There are a number of longer odds selections today, which I am comfortable to play with my bankroll and strict staking. If picking and choosing plays to follow, or after something with a higher win probability (albeit at a lower value price), you could play Bellis +1.5 sets or at the + game handicap. I know my style is not for everyone, so adjust accordingly.
1 unit Bellis to defeat Brady at $2.62 at Bet365
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