Martinez vs Hanfmann (Approx 06:00pm AEST)
Another match in Trieste where I am more inclined to take the underdog.
Whilst I can acknowledge the form of Hanfmann over the last week and a half has been impressive, I feel this match-up is perhaps not as favourable as some of the others. Through his last few round in Todi, Hanfmann had a fairly significant power advantage over Zapata Miralles, Cecchinato and Musetti, and Moroni was at a level below what we saw of him for the rest of the week. Viktor Galovic is a decent striker of the ball, and he had some success in round 1 in troubling Hanfmann coming off his Todi title. It sets up for an interesting match here.
I was incredibly impressed with Martinez and his efforts seeing him live in Melbourne at the start of the year on a surface that was not entirely in his favour. His serve is powerful for his size, and his ability to get kick on his serve on the clay allows him to utilise his serve-forehand one-two punch quite effectively. His backhand at times is also on the flat side, which will be a little more difficult for Hanfmann to generate winners from within rallies. I feel there may be patches of this match where Hanfmann will try and generate winners from some low-percentage positions, and with the mixture of power for his size, and the quality of court coverage from Martinez, this looks to be a closer match-up than the odds suggest.
I still have Hanfmann as a favourite in this match, however the odds should be far closer. I will keep the staking small, and I am happy to make a 1 unit selection on Martinez to cause the upset.
1 unit Vilella Martinez to defeat Hanfmann at $2.75 at Bet365
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