Medvedev vs Bedene (Approx 01:00am AEST)
Here we have another upset alert in my opinion, as I would not be surprised in the slightest to see Bedene come away with the win here.
I remarked in my outright preview for this week that Medvedev doesn’t have as much to play for over the next couple of weeks from a rankings standpoint, given he gets to keep his Cincinnati title and US Open final points from this time last year. That isn’t the reason I am opposing him today though, as I think the conditions lend themselves more to Bedene overall, but it is a nice afterthought.
I generally prefer to back Medvedev on a slower hardcourt. Whilst he does have a big first serve, he has the tendency to drop back behind the baseline and extend rallies far more than almost any other player of a similar size. On slower hardcourts he has the ability to cover off balls and pick his spots a little more. It does open him up to be attacked on faster hardcourts however, and one of the traits that can attack his weakness falls right into the wheelhouse of Bedene.
To be able to exploit Medvedev’s positioning in these conditions, you need to be able to step in and take balls early, as well has have confidence in your ability to redirect the direction of rallies. Theses are traits I think Bedene possesses enough to challenge the Russian.
Whilst you could also make a case for the over 21.5 games or the Bedene +3.5 games, however in a similar fashion to the Krajinovic/Thiem, I think the biggest value lies in the head to head pricing at $4 (and a little higher on the Betfair Exchange currently). Happy to make a play on the head to head price for 1.5 units, as I am still slowly building staking as we all get used to the tour returning.
1.5 units Bedene to defeat Medvedev at $4 at Topsport
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