ATP Cincinnati (New York) – Thiem vs Krajinovic

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Krajinovic vs Thiem (Approx 09:00am AEST) 

The appeal in Thiem across the next couple weeks has dropped a touch in my opinion, largely due to the increase in speed of the courts in New York. 

When you cast an eye over the best results Thiem has produced on hardcourt over his career, the majority of them have come on slower hardcourts. The likes of Indian Wells, and Flushing Meadows in the past have been some of his best outdoor hardcourt efforts, and they have all been on slower hardcourts. What he loses in change in surface speed, he gains in being arguably the fittest player on the tour given his travelling around during his exhibition run, so this won’t be a big play in opposing him. 

Filip Krajinovic is going to be a tricky opponent for Thiem first up, with the Serbian coming off a very solid win in round 1 against surprise qualifier Salvatore Caruso. It was a bit of a break-fest, however Krajinovic was able to progress 7-5 6-4 in 2hrs15. It was surprising to see a combined 31 break point opportunities for the match, however Krajinovic was able to convert in key moments to take the victory. 

I was hoping the +5 game handicap was going to be a little bit more accessible, as that would have been a solid bet selection. I am not a fan of the +/-4.5 game handicap in a best of 3 set arena, so I will instead make a small play on Krajinovic to win at $6+. I would have Krajinovic shorter given the conditions, Thiem coming off the bye and with one eye on the upcoming fortnight, in what will be his best chance at a Grand Slam to date. It is certainly worth 0.5 units in the week before a grand slam.

Suggested Bet

0.5 units Krajinovic to defeat Thiem at $6.25 at Topsport and Unibet


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