Davis vs Samsonova (Approx 01:00am AEST)
For those of you that have been following me for a little while, you will know of my preference to support Lauren Davis at value prices in North America more so than any other part of the world. What she lacks in power she more than makes up for with court coverage and precision hitting at times, which to me is a tricky match-up for Samsonova at this stage of her career.
Davis found herself in a tricky spot in Lexington last week, coming up against Magda Linette in the first round. Linette is more experienced than Samsonova, and was able to adjust her game a touch accordingly, however Davis was left to rue a 17% break point conversion rate for the match, losing 2-6 3-6. I would be anticipating an improved performance in more favourable conditions today.
Samsonova is one of the players who was fortunate enough to play a couple of the European clay tournaments earlier in the month. After a strong start in qualifying in Palermo, things went off course a touch with losses to Martic and Kung. She transitions the North America and the slower hardcourt now, and I just worry a touch for her decision making and use of her second serve against a player like Davis.
Samsonova has the tendency at times to go for a little too much on her second serve, which can lead to either to increased pressure in key moments, or the need to dial back and become less potent. She didn’t look to be at 100% when backing up in Prague off the quick turnaround, losing to Kung 2-6 2-6.
Just a 1 unit selection here on Davis, as I had her as a warm favourite in this one.