Paire vs Lajovic (Approx 06:30pm AEDST)
We saw on Saturday just how engaged Benoit Paire has found himself in the ATP Cup. The Frenchman came back strongly after trailing Jarry by a set and a break, sealing the victory 6-7 6-3 6-3. Jarry has a decent hardcourt first serve, and Paire was able to win 36% of points on 1st serve return, a solid outcome early in the season.
Paire isn’t phased by the conditions on offer in Brisbane, and with a lot on the line I am a little surprised to see him sitting at $1.80 today against Dusan Lajovic. Lajovic too delivered a comeback win on Saturday, defeating Lloyd Harris 3-6 7-6 6-3. I just don’t feel in this match-up with full motivation that Lajovic has quite as much to offer on the hardcourt as Paire.
Unless Lajovic can find a way to keep rallies almost exclusively forehand-to-forehand, then I don’t see him getting the job done over Paire in these conditions. Paire should be too strong for mine.
3 units Paire to defeat Lajovic at $1.85 at Topsport
Monfils vs Djokovic (Approx 08:30pm AEDST)
Nobody beats Gael Monfils 17 times in a row! In all seriousness, if there was ever a time for Gael Monfils to get the victory over Novak Djokovic, this looks to be the best chance.
Best-of-5 has always favoured Djokovic in this match-up, such is the fitness level of the Serbian in comparison to Monfils. We haven’t seen these two meet in the shorter form on hardcourt for 3 and a half years, so a lot of water has gone under the bridge. Monfils has matured a touch, and Djokovic’s level has come back to the field a touch.outside of Grand Slams.
It will be a sticky and humid set-up in Brisbane tonight, so Monfils should be okay with the heat of the day gone. The humidity would likely impact Djokovic moreso than Monfils, so it will be an interesting match from a conditions standpoint. The last time they met on hardcourt was at the 2018 Australian Open, where these two met in hellish conditions. Monfils actually took the first set that day, however faded quickly.
There is $7+ available on the Exchange, however the $6 available at a number of bookmakers looks worthy of a 2 unit selection. I would have Monfils sub-$4 in this conditions.
2 unit Monfils to defeat Djokovic at $6 at Topsport