Knowing when to buy low and sell high is a key principle for any great punter, and I feel like it’s something I’m about to do ahead of Adelaide’s first-round clash between Dan Evans and Rinky Hijikata.
The Australian Hijikata knocked off Tomas Machac at Brisbane last week, announcing himself as a sneaky competitor in the summer swing.
People closer to the sport know Hijikata has been putting up big numbers on home soil for a while, but almost all of these results have come in the lower grades.
Having said that, you can’t knock a 22-10 Challenger hard-court record (with a title to-boot), but you’ve got to look at the main-draw stuff too.
In 2023, Hijikata went 7-9 on the main draw with a combined hold-break of 94.6 – this is not good.
The Aussie is just 22 years old, meaning you can expect an uptick in form and gradual progression, but it’s still a very short market quota against someone like Evans.
The two-time tour level champion went 13-17 on the main draw last season, with a far superior hold-break number of 100.8, chalking up wins over Alex De Minaur, Grigor Dimitrov, Frances Tiafoe, and Arthur Fils.
He won ATP Washington in spectacular fashion, and most definitely produced a ceiling much higher than anything we’ve seen from his round one opponent in Adelaide.
Is the asterisk here is the first-up challenge for Evans as it’s his first match since injury his calf at the end of last season against Tiafoe (a match he was well in control of).
In reality, this price is built hugely on recency bias as the market is willing to write Evans off – at least during the opening stages of the season.
I’m just not sure that’s wise.
Evans won his maiden tour-level title at the Murray River tournament back in 2021, and has generally made a happy hunting ground of these shores.
Hijikata is in good form, but you could make a case for a mini hangover after charged up run at Brisbane.
All things considered, I don’t find this price to be appropriate and if Evans comes out playing well, we’ll be wondering how we ever snapped up odds against about the Brit.
Suggested Bet
1 unit Dan Evans to WIN @ $2.20 with Bet365.
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.