I am venturing into territory I generally avoid: backing Fabio Fognini as a favourite. It feels as though we are currently watching a different Fognini, who appeared to be re-invigorated since the tour headed to Rome. The Italian had been battling with a foot issue, however it looks as though he is largely back on track, defeating Auger-Aliassime and Kubler in straight sets on his way to the third round.
I was keen to back Ofner in some capacity in round 1 against Cressy, however I do feel as though his results have been more about the form and injury issues for both Cressy and Korda. The occasion is growing round on round, and Ofner now finds himself against a player with high quality court coverage, defensive skills, and crowd support. With the major step up in opposition quality from the Challenger and Qualifying run, and a style change, look for Ofner to struggle here against Fognini.
Suggested Bet
1.5 units Fognini to defeat Ofner at $1.70 at Betfair minus commission
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.