добро пожаловать в санкт-петербург! Accourding to Google, that means, “Welcome to St. Petersburg!” A week before the WTA 1000 event in Miami some players are in Monterrey and others decided to go to Russia. Many of the top names are taking this week off in preparation for the bigger event upcoming, but we have a great field of talented, European women. Let’s see who might take home the trophy and even more importantly, who might offer value in the outright betting markets.
Fodder
*See the glossary at the end for explanation of table headers*
With my deepest apologies to the players, but also the utmost respect for everyone’s time, Stefanie Voegle, Tereza Martincova, Katerina Siniakova, Kirsten Flipkens, Kristina Mladenovic, Arina Rodionova, Katarina Zavatska, Anastasia Gasanova, Cagla Buyukakcay, Jaqueline Cristian, Vera Lapko, Xin yu Wang, Viktoriya Tomova, Daria Mironova, and Kamila Rakhimova will not be lifting the trophy at the end of this week.
Margarita Gasparyan is one of the many Russians looking to win an event in her home country. She has a strong serve and a solid game, but is rarely the level of physical fitness required to play a week’s worth of strong tennis. She hasn’t won more than 3 main draw matches since 2019 in Istanbul. I’ll be looking to back her match to match if she isn’t wearing too much tape.
Ana Bogdan and Aliaksandra Sasnovich are stuck facing one another in round 1 and face the winner of Tauson/Kasatkina in round 2. I don’t think either could win the tournament, but both would be capable of winning a few matches in other parts of the draw.
Stupid Draw
What a fantastic first round match, but such a waste of 2 players who could contend for this title. Jelena Ostapenko has the power and top end level to win almost any event, especially one like this that lacks the top WTA players. Paula Badosa is rounding into form and won’t mind the aggressiveness of Jelena’s game. I really think either
Not Even With A Bye
I’m still surprised Fiona Ferro has a high enough ranking to be a top 3 seed in tournaments, but here we are again. She’s guaranteed to make the second round, but I don’t think she wins a match at this event. Even if she does, she’ll an underdog most of the way in my opinion. No way I can bet her to win the tournament at 11-1.
I don’t think Svetlana Kuznetsova has the game to beat the winner of the top half or the winner of the 4th quarter, but I do think she has a great chance to win her quarter. After that, things get dicey. Much too dangerous to warrant her price of 9-1 to win this event.
Other Russian Women Who Couldn’t Make the Cut
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova hasn’t wont a WTA tournament since 2018 and I have to go back to 2017 to find a title on hard courts. She’s in a soft quarter, but I can’t see any value at 10-1 to lift the trophy. She’ll be outmatched from the quarterfinals and beyond.
Daria Kasatkina has one of the toughest spots in this draw. Tauson, Sasnovich/Bogdan, Kudermetova, Quarter 3 winner, and then the final. 10-1 is an absurd price for her to win the tournament. You’ll do much better betting her moneyline every match rolling that money over each time. I’m not doing that, but it’s a much better idea than 10-1.
They Might Win, But I Hate the Price
Ekaterina Alexandrova is the top seed and market favorite again this season. We’re also indoors again and in her home country. She should have no trouble winning the two matches required to win her quarter. In fact, if you can find a price for her to win her quarter at -125(1,80) or better you should play that, but she’s 4 to 1 to win the whole thing. That’s much too short given the prices I’m expecting on her in the semifinals and finals. The winner of quarter 2 will be an underdog, but not in a huge way, and I think the price against any finalist will be close to a pick em. She’s has a great chance to lift the trophy, but there’s no value in that number.
Remember that draw I laid out for Kasatkina? It’s the same draw for Clara Tauson. Now, she is on a 12 match win streak which is insane and she’s going to win a lot of tournaments in her career, but should she be 10-1 in this spot of this field? I think not. She’s a small underdog in round 1 and would be a small favorite at best in the quarterfinals and beyond. Bet her match to match, but not at this price in the outright markets.
Veronika Kudermetova is one of my favorite players on tour, but she continues the list of 10sh to 1 players with tough draws. She has a bye and round 2 should be a cakewalk, but then it’s Tauson/Kasatkina, Kuznetsova/Badosa/Ostapenko, and then the finals. Again, I expect more value on her match to match.
The Chosen Few
Well, there really is only one player left, but changing the title to “The Chosen One” felt presumptive at best, but I really do love the value on Vera Zvonareva in the outright markets. She sits in the 2nd quarter which is very soft even with Ferro and Pavlyuchenkova. She avoids everyone in the bottom half until the finals and would likely face Alexandrova in the semifnals. That’s much easier than any of the draws we saw for those 10sh to 1 women. Vera has good stats, played well in the Yarra Valley event, loves playing indoors, and has had success playing in home country. I like her at 3-1 to win her quarter and 14-1 to win the tournament.
MY BRACKET
Quarter 1 – Alexandrova over Gasparyan
Quarter 2 – Zvonareva over Pavlyuchenkova
Quarter 3 – Kuznetsova over Ostapenko
Quarter 4 – Kudermetova over Tauson
Final – Alexandrova over Kudermetova
RECAP OF WAGERS
0.5U – Zvonareva to win the tournament 14-1 or better
0.5U – Zvonareva to win the 2nd quarter at 3-1 or better
1U – Alexandrova to win the 1st quarter at 0.8-1 (aka -125 aka 1,80) or better
GLOSSARY OF DATA HEADINGS
Avg Rk – This is the average rank of opponent’s faced over that period.
Avg Spread – This is the average games more(or less) the player wins than their opponent. For example, 1.3 means that player averages 1.3 games per match more than their opponent.
Avg Total – This is the average total games in matches this player has played
Hold% – % of total games won on service
Break% – % of total games won on return