The 4th quarter of the US Open Women’s draw looks like Aryna Sabalenka’s quarter to lose. She was upset in the US Open final last year, won the Australian Open for the second consecutive time this year, and just won Cincinnati without dropping a set. She’ll be a big favorite until at the quarterfinal and might be a big favorite in that match and beyond. Oddsmakers have her as the favorite to win the US Open with a price of 3.50(+250) which makes perfect sense to me given her form and position in the draw. Unfortunately, I don’t see any value in betting that price which likely means I won’t bet her at all in this tournament with the possible exception of her meeting Swiatek in the final. Sabalenka is one of my very favorite players on tour and I’d be thrilled to watch her win a US Open, but I can’t in good conscience invest in that outcome at these prices.
I met Qinwen Zheng’s father in 2022 at the US Open. Zheng was playing a first round match against Jelena Ostapenko, a match she won in three sets, and I couldn’t pass up the chance to see one of my favorite, young players and be close enough to hear Ostapenko curse in Latvian. It didn’t disappoint and while screaming “QUEEN” after each of Zheng’s big points, her father stopped over to ask why I was yelling that. After some explanation, he loved the nickname and hoped it would stick. That doesn’t appear to have happened, but it won’t stop me from worshipping Queen Zheng. She’s going to win the US Open at least once in her career, it’s just a matter of when. Zheng looked great fighting her way to the Australian Open final this season and won gold at the Olympics becoming the first women to beat Iga Swiatek at Rolland Garros in three years. She’ll be a favorite all the way to the quarterfinals where she would likely face Aryna Sabalenka who beat Zheng in the Australian Open final. Zheng closed around 5.30(+450) in that match and although the odds will be tighter this time, that’s too close to her quarter price which is 6.50(+550). I want to bet Queen and will be betting her eventually, I just can’t justify doing it now at current prices.
I realize you might have interpreted the story about Zheng’s father as bragging, but it was actually just an attempt to fill space and time while I hopefully found something worth betting. Sadly, that plan didn’t work. Sabalenka’s presence, form, and easy path makes it hard to think anyone else has a reasonable shot to win this quarter. Zheng’s price isn’t good enough and her spot in the draw is too tough. I don’t hate the idea of betting on Donna Vekic, but she’s only won more than two matches at the US Open once. Keep an eye on qualifier Maya Joint, but don’t bet her outrights. I’m really sorry, I got nothing.
Suggested Bet
None 🙁
Other US Open Quarter Previews
Quarter 1
Quarter 2
Quarter 3
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.