The 2nd quarter of the US Open Women’s draw is topped by Elena Rybakina with Jasmine Paolini at the bottom. Rybakina came into the season as one of the very best players on tour and continues to be just that when she’s healthy. Paolini was not quite unknown, but a lesser-known player considered to be more of a grinder than someone with the talent to make a French Open final or a Wimbledon final let alone both in the same season. There are questions about Rybakina’s fitness after not quite looking right in her 3-set loss to Leylah Fernandez in Cincinnati, her only match played on hard courts since March. At 11.00(+1000), the market is pricing Rybakina like she’s in good form and that’s just not the case. Her draw isn’t tough, but I’m not backing her at these prices until I see how she looks.
Paolini didn’t look great in Cincinnati either, but there are no questions about her health. There are, however, some questions about her path in this draw. She is better than Bianca Andreescu and Karolina Pliskova, her first two opponents, but they are power players who can dictate a match if their level is high enough on the right day. Round 3 should be easier, but it’s back to facing power players in round 4 against Jelena Ostapenko, and maybe Rybakina in the quarterfinal. Paolini can win all these matches, but at 29.00(+2800) to win the tournament and 6.50(+550) to win this quarter I’m not interested in making a wager now. Add this to the “we can do better betting them match-to-match” list.
Jelena Ostapenko is always a scary opponent. After stumbling at Wimbledon, Montreal, and Cincinnati she made it all the way to the quarterfinals beating Jasmine Paolini and Iga Swiatek before losing to the eventual champion, Coco Gauff. Her first round opponent this year is Naomi Osaka who skipped the 2023 season and has played nowhere near her past level in 2024. Osaka is just 17-14 on hard courts this season with a good, but not great hold+break rate. Naturally, Osaka is a top 10 betting favorite ahead of Collins, Paolini, and well ahead of Ostapenko who is just a small underdog against Osaka in round one. It should be a great opening match but creates a weird dynamic for betting outrights. There’s no way I’m back Osaka at these prices, they’re just awful. There are some bigger numbers out there on Ostapenko but not big enough to warrant a wager. I’ll keep an eye on Ostapenko and re-evaluate if she makes it to the 2nd round.
Now it’s time for a swing at some big numbers. Anna Kalinskaya has played some very good tennis this season. She made the quarterfinals at the Australian open, the final in Dubai, and the final in Berlin. The problem is that she’s not always healthy enough to play tennis. Kalinskaya retired at Wimbledon and then against a few weeks ago in Toronto. She made it through Cincinnati unscathed and should be a comfortable favorite in the first few rounds. After that, Kalinskaya might face Elena Rybakina who I have doubt about and lost to Anna last year in Madrid. That gets her to the quarterfinal where at 19.00(+1800) to win the quarter and 101.00(+10000) to win the tournament we’ll have a lot of equity. I like both of those prices and will grab both for a small amount. Kalinskaya might burn out physically or run into a Rybakina that has found some form, but at these prices it’s worth a wager.
Suggested Bet
0.5U – Anna Kalinskaya to win Quarter 2 of the US Open 19.00(+1800)
0.25U – Anna Kalinskaya to win the US Open 101.00(+10000)
OTHER US OPEN QUARTER PREVIEWS
Quarter 1
Quarter 3
Quarter 4
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.