The 1st quarter of the US Open Women’s draw, like most tournaments, is Iga Swiatek’s quarter. She’s the top seed in the tournament and favored to win this quarter, but not favored to win the tournament. She’s priced second at 4.50(+350) just behind Aryna Sabalenka at 3.40(+240) and comfortably ahead of Coco Gauff at 7.75(+675). Swiatek won the US Open in 2022 but that was the first time she made it past round 4 since 2019. It’s been a long season and dominating for almost 9 months on different surfaces while traveling across the world can be tough on a player. It’s never fun to bet against the WTA’s most dominant player but this is a good tournament to do just that. Let’s see if there are some players who can win this quarter if Iga Swiatek is not at her best.
Mirra Andreeva just recently came very close to beating Iga in the quarterfinals in Cincinnati. She won the first set and made it to 5-5 in the 3rd before Swiatek was able to grab the victory. Andreeva is still very young at just 17 years old but has already shown some poise and the ability to win at the WTA level even at the grand slam level after making the semi-finals of the French Open. I expect her to win her first few matches and have another shot to beat Swiatek in the 4th round. There’s a lot of upside for Mirra even so early in her career. Unfortunately, the market seems to know this as well. Against Iga in Cincinnati, Andreeva closed around 4.90(+390) and she is currently 6.50(+550) to win this quarter. That’s just an awful price considering the price she would be against Swiatek who is very likely to be there waiting. I’ll wait to bet Mirra in that match and pass on any outrights for now.
Jessica Pegula is poised to make a deep run in a Grand Slam for the third year in a row. She’s made five Grand Slam quarterfinals since 2022 but has yet to break through that round. A big part of those struggles has been her inability to beat top 10 talent. Now, Pegula is 8-2 in her last 10 matches against top players, but In the 21 matches against the top 10 prior to this recent run, she was 5-16. Maybe Pegula is over that hump and ready to get beyond the quarterfinals in these year’s US Open. Her first test comes in round 4 against either Danielle Collins or Diana Shnaider and then Iga Swiatek is likely waiting in the quarterfinal. Pegula is priced at 13.00(+1200) to win the title and 5.00(+400) to win the quarter. I’m not jumping to back her with some potentially tough matches late in the tournament and similar to Mirra Andreeva, I’m pretty sure we can do better backing her match-to-match than taking these outright prices.
Danielle Collins is playing some of her very best tennis in her final year on tour. She’s planning to retire at the end of the season, and it would be quite the end to her career to win the US Open. Collins won back-to-back events in Miami and Charleston earlier this year and has an elite hold+break rating over the last 52 weeks. She will likely have to beat Diana Shnaider, Jessica Pegula, and Iga Swiatek to win this quarter, but Collins could be favored in the semi-final and maybe chaos ensues in the bottom half of the draw. At 31.00(+3000) to win the tournament and at 9.50(+850) to win quarter 1, I think there’s value in betting on her now instead of waiting. Of course, I’ll still look to back her match-to-match, but I’ll put down some bets now. These numbers will drop as she progresses and will have a lot of value if any of the top players around her falter.
Suggested Bet
0.5U – Danielle Collins to win Quarter 1 of the US Open 9.50 (+850)
0.5U – Danielle Collins to win the US Open 31.00 (+3000)
Other US Open Quarter Previews
Quarter 2
Quarter 3
Quarter 4
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.