I was incredibly impressed with what I saw from Cobolli in person earlier this week. It wasn’t so much about his game overall, but it was his ability to play to the conditions, and hang in the contest when things weren’t going his way. Ben Shelton was all over Cobolli, up a set and break, before the sun came off the court and Shelton’s game lost a bit of pop. Cobolli was exceptional in turning things around, and added a strong win to his week to go with straight set wins over Shevchenko and Karatsev.
Casper Ruud has played 6 sets through two matches, against Ofner and Baez, and I would be surprised if he didn’t have a small portion of his focus on Roland Garros, with the main draw starting tomorrow. For either of these players to win the tournament, they will need to win this match, and then defeat Machah later today in the final. I’m just not sure I can justify Cobolli being anywhere near $4.50 in this situation. First of all, taking the situation away, Cobolli looks too long based on match-up and ceiling, and then when you consider the situation as well, it’s hard to not make a strong case here.
Suggested Bet:
1.5 units Cobolli to defeat Ruud at $4.50 at Betfair minus commission/Bet365
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.