Jake’s Santiago Previews: Quarter One and Outright

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I spoke in depth on X about my willingness to bet into Nicolas Jarry this week at the Santiago Open, so I’m just formalizing the selection, here.

This is the write-up from X pertaining the outright selection:

I’m going to have to jump on this right now for 1.5 units @ $5 with UniBet/TabTouch, $4.75 Bet365, $4.50 SportsBet.

Nicolas Jarry is the defending champion and also best player in this draw. I obviously have high opinions of Baez but on the quick back-up, in vastly different conditions, he’s at a disadvantage.

Jarry got done by Hanfmann at Rio but he probably had one eye on Santiago, especially after losing in the final at BA the week before, a horrible spot for the Chilean. This is his grand final, he’ll be all-in. The draw is extremely manageable and Federico Coria looks to be the most dangerous player in his section and it’s no given he’ll be able to handle the unique conditions here as well Jarry.

The Argentine is 1-3 lifetime at this venue with his only win coming in 2021 against Mager. I’ll say it again: Jarry is the best player in this draw, and also the most capable in these conditions.

The 4-1 quota is not correct. You could Monte Carlo this as many times as you like, but based on the data and variables I’ve mentioned, I’ve got Jarry making the final here 50% of the time, and winning it about a third of the time. Let’s bet and bet with confidence.”

Not only am I keen to put into the outright market, I’m also going to back him to win the first quarter @ $2 with Bet365.


1.5 units Jarry to WIN Santiago @ $5 with TABTouch/UniBet, $4.75 Bet365, $4.50 SportsBet.

1.5 units Jarry to WIN quarter 1 @ $2 with Bet365.

Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.