2 x Underdog Selections – February 23, 2024

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Just the two plays at the moment that stand out for overnight action.

WTA Dubai
Although she has done an impressive job in coming back from the brink against Donna Vekic and more recently Marketa Vondrousova, I don’t quite think that Sorana Cirstea is playing at a level near her best. When you combine that with an opponent who is incredibly solid defensively, and is confidently playing at a level that is near a career best in Jasmine Paolini, and it leads me to think the odds here aren’t quite right. I have been impressed with Paolini’s level and her ability to dig in and manage her deficits when needed. She hung around against Haddad Maia long enough to capitalize, and I thought she was tremendous against Sakkari after going down an early break in each set. She looks to be a nice price here at $2.20 for a 1 unit selection.

ATP Doha
I also am not quite sure that Karen Khachanov has done enough recently to justify being such a short price against Alexei Popyrin. The level from the Australian to start 2024 has been solid, and that includes his losses to Djokovic at the Australian Open (had set points to go up 2 sets to 1) and Safiullin. Khachanov was the beneficiary of a Ruusuvuori retirement, bit I am surprised to see his odds for that match being in the ballpark of $1.65, and him now sitting around the $1.40 mark in this one. The Russian looked below his best against Marozsan here first up, and was fortunate that a 4/4 break point conversion rate largely saved him. I cannot have Popyrin over $3 in this match-up on the form of both players.

Suggested Bet:
1 unit Paolini to defeat Cirstea at $2.14 at Unibet/Betfair minus commission
1 unit Popyrin to defeat Khachanov at $3.20 at Bet365/Betfair minus commission

Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.