Just a head down, bum up attitude for me this week.
Here are the last three singles bets:
What does this mean? Well, it means the average edge of my last three wagers is 12.9% which means it’s technically my best three-bet stretch of the season, with nothing to show for it.
The aim for me in February is simple: don’t sweat outcomes, sweat value.
If I’m getting ahead of the market consistently, I’ll be fine.
Here are the results:
Let’s talk a little bit about Doha.
WINDY.
SLIGHTLY HUMID.
SLOW CONDITIONS.
Last five champions: Daniil Medvedev, Roberto Bautista Agut, Nikoloz Basilashvili, Andrey Rublev, Roberto Bautista Agut.
As you can see, baseline sluggers and players who aren’t grossly dependent on their serve tend to do well.
THE SEEDS + RECORD AT VENUE + HOLD-BREAK AT VENUE
ANDRE Y RUBLEV: 10-4, 110.9.
KAREN KHACHANOV: 4-3, 108.6.
UGO HUMBERT: Debut.
ALEXANDER BUBLIK: 3-3, 100.9.
OUTRIGHT SELECTION: 2 units Andrey Rublev to WIN @ $4 with TAB, $3.75 Bet365, $3.50 all other soft books. Play down to $3.50.
There’s really no reason to not bet up on this. Like I mentioned last week, Rublev has made tournament like this a frequent pay day over the years, and he’s won this one before as well. The schedule is fairly straight forward, and there is zero chance he will start odds against the entire way, barring an unprecedented set of circumstances.
I’ll circle back in another post with more futures.
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.