Jake’s Doha Preview:

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Howdy, guys.

At the time of writing, I’m somewhat licking my wounds after a downswing, although I am proud of a lot of the numbers/bets I’ve taken and do think the variance has been a little stiff.

The last two singles I took were Lajovic $2.20 and Rublev $1.85, these wagers closed as +5.72 and +19% edges, respectively.

It’s very hard to lose long term when you’re taking prices like that but admittedly, I’ve backed some drifters too.

All in all, I’ve been beaten by the tennis market through seven weeks of the season, to the tune of this:

This data is good and bad news: good news because the loss is small and there’s plenty of time and upcoming action in which I can recoup.

Bad because I’ve put a truck load of efforts into the bets this season and the sample size is starting to get indicative of my ability.

The truth is, you can’t lean on bad luck as an excuse for too long because after a while, the sample size will be so big that you simply can’t chalk up negative results to variance.

The way I look at it is if you take bad prices, you deserve bad outcomes. My EV would be very close to evens this season and I have been slightly unlucky but ultimately, I deserve the results I’ve accrued.

That being said, I’m excited to keep betting and have put some plans in place to make sure I’m refining my singles selections and also taking the best market price available.

I am going to add Pinnacle prices to my ongoing list of available bookies, and I will be making a concerted effort to use the exchange when I’m betting late.

I’m on winning run away from being plus percent, and I’m hoping that run can start this week.

Marton Fucsovics vs. Roberto Bautista Agut:

Now, I understand Agut has been quite poor recently, but often times you can get great prices backing people after a run of outs.

My stance with the Spaniard is recently straight forward: Agut has a few years left in the tank, but he will no longer be able to push the top 10-20 players on a consistent basis.

However, at plus money prices against fairly one-dimensional players like Fucsovics, there will be instances in which he’s value – especially at venues where he’s won the tournament before.

Agut has a preparation edge as he hasn’t played since the qualifying stages of Rotterdam, whereas Fucsovics lost to Dimitrov in two close sets just a couple of nights ago.

I also don’t think there’s a great deal between these two guys on a slow outdoor hard in warmer conditions. I mean, they played 12 months ago at this very venue, Agut winning in three sets with a $1.31 SP.

I understand things change a lot in 12 months, but I wouldn’t say the Hungarian’s form lately has been blistering.

Agut is 17-3 at this venue, making it his most successful tournament with a reasonable sample size.

It’s true, market has taken a fairly firm stance against the Spaniard, and I’ve lost a bit of cash betting into him at plus money prices.

If he continues to fade violently, there will be a time very soon where I stop betting on him.

But given the preparation time, and my overall opinion of both players on outdoor hard courts, I think Agut should be a lot closer to evens.

Suggested Bet:

1.5 units Roberto Bautista Agut to WIN @ $2.48 with Pinnacle.

Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.