Fading Karolina Pliskova coming off a title-winning week on a different continent hasn’t actually been fun so far. That being said, the tall Czech is scheduled to play her eighth match in as many days today and unlike in Cluj-Napoca, her last three matches in Doha all went three sets. In the course of these, Anna Kalinskaya and Linda Noskova could have easily beaten Pliskova, but looked lackadaisical in their respective decider especially. We’ve seen Naomi Osaka play like that as well in the past, but the former Grand Slam champion is looking composed and truly on her way back this week. In marked contrast to Pliskova, Osaka should be well-rested, having received a walkover by the notoriously injured Lesia Tsurenko yesterday. Against a player with just as much firepower, Pliskova will also be on the back foot more often and I can see fatigue finally catching up to her. I have Osaka at over 60% in these circumstances, so there’s value at the current line right around 1.80 (55% implied probability).
Suggested Bet:
Naomi Osaka ML at 1.81 (-123) with Pinnacle
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.