I’m close to despair at the moment.
At the time of writing, I’m amid a 1-5 Wednesday card where I’ve had very little luck, but on average haven’t performed well enough against the closing price.
In 2023, I pulled the pin before the end of the season because I thought “nope, enough is enough, I can’t beat this.”
I do believe the tennis market has gotten sharper in the last couple of years, and if you’re not approaching your day-to-day bets meticulously, and working very hard, it’s unlikely you’ll make money.
I never ever ever want to be that guy who beats a dead horse, and is publicly seen to be pushing shit uphill without a shovel.
I’m always a bad run away from admitting defeat, and right now is no different.
Having said that, I do stick to my processes and am still going to try to bet good prices in good positions.
I’m going to take a price on Gael Monfils that I find to be quite big, and I don’t see it hanging around until kick-off.
The $2.46 on offer with BetKings looks good, considering the data sets of both players in similar conditions do not favour Shapovalov to the degree the market thinks.
Monfils has won this tournament before, and he won an indoor hard-court competition towards the back-end of last season.
Up until a recent run of outs, his SP strength was rock solid as he went around heavy odds-on against Cobolli and Marozsan, two players who are quite close to Shapovalov’s current level.
The Canadian is obviously a capable player, with upside that might still be unrealized, but Monfils is presumably up to this fitness wise and if he is a little underdone, I don’t think Shapovalov is the best player to exploit these potential ailments.
He makes most of his money during short-intermediate rallies and I feel like Monfils’ potency from the baseline can unsettle him a little.
Suggested Bet:
1 unit Gael Monfils to WIN @ $2.46 with BetKings
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.