I’m sitting here in the wake of the Dellien loss and wondering what I need to do to not even go on a winning run, but just to avoid these horrific losses.
The correct answer is simple: keep betting, and keep beating the market.
So guess what, that’s exactly what we’re here to do.
I don’t believe in long term bad luck. If you take value, and bet enough, your results will be reflective of your ability.
Randomness can only have a say for so long. Have I been brutally unlucky recently? Yes.
Will the tides turn if I keep making good bets? Also yes.
So, less talking more betting.
ROTTERDAM OUTLOOK:
Before diving into any bets, I’d like to talk briefly about the conditions here. Although the CPI will suggest it’s a medium-paced hard court, the commentary from a lot of the players in the last few seasons has suggested the balls or the court itself, are actually very slow.
And when I’ve watched this tournament in the past and seen the likes of Rublev and Tsitsipas do well, I always seem to think it’s slower than what people expect.
I will be treating this as a pretty slow deck, and will be betting accordingly.
QUARTER ONE:
I need to be honest with myself and admit that I misread Sinner’s ability before the open, but I also need to trust my intuition and think this probably isn’t a good spot for the Italian first-up.
These are obviously completely different conditions to Melbourne, and I don’t traditionally love this tournament as a first hit-out after the Aussie Open.
I remember a few years back when Medvedev rocked up here and lost to Dusan Lajovic after a Melbourne finals appearance, and I can’t help envisage a banana peel spot for Sinner as well.
Due to this, I’ll be looking to oppose him in round one, and I certainly won’t be taking his quarter price.
The issue is, it’s a fairly dead section as far as prospects go. Alexander Bublik is in excellent form, but I do worry about backing him given the schedule.
Coric, Monfils and Shapovalov could all figure, but there won’t be a quarters bet for me.
QUARTER TWO:
Zero knock on Hurkacz’s first-up efforts at Marseille – I thought he was fine.
He mentioned in 2022 that the surface was quite slow, and I don’t think that’s necessarily his preferred set of circumstances, but I also think he’s good enough at this stage of his career to shake those issues aside.
There’s also a chance the deck is quicker this time around, you never know.
I do fear Lehecka first-up, and there’s really a lot of quality in this section.
When I look at all of the quarters, I have some opinions about how players will fare, but I would like more to bet on their H2H prices when they meet other runners in the draw, whereas I don’t see value on the quarters markets.
I would be surprised to see Humbert play well, especially first-up after a final. I also don’t have much trust in Ruusuvouri – it’s a very open section.
QUARTER THREE:
Holger Rune lost a bit of my respect at Montpellier. I mean, he doesn’t have a lot of it as it is, but he was just so underwhelming in a very good position.
In theory, these conditions should be very good for him, but the sample size in this building is limited.
Grigor is also hard in the market, but I feel like he’s at the bottom of his value point after the win at Brisbane and finale at Marseille – he can’t be much shorter.
It truly is a tough section, much like the others.
QUARTER FOUR:
Right, time to play.
Andrey Rublev is an old betting favourite of mine, and has lapped up the conditions in this building.
He fell flat first-up against De Minaur last season, but I truly think he’s the class player in this section.
I’m trying to find a way to bet into him because $2.62 does look quite short when you map out the projected starting prices.
De Minaur has played well here, and even though he knocked off Rublev here last year, that was a first-up contest.
I think this time around, in slower conditions, I’d want to be on the Russian.
Suggested Bet:
1.5 units Rublev to reach the quarter-finals @ $1.80 with Bet365
I might add more in another post, but at the moment this price represents the most value.
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.