I think there’s a lot to like about the favorites in the women’s Australian Open semifinals. While #4 seed and US Open champion Coco Gauff will have to improve a lot compared to her match against Marta Kostyuk to even stand a chance against #2 seed Aryna Sabalenka, it’s a matter of who maintains their quarterfinal form best between qualifier Dayana Yastremska and #12 seed Zheng Qinwen.
Zheng topped her first major quarterfinal at last year’s US Open immediately with a semifinal here in Melbourne. And she’s not done yet. After losing the first set against Anna Kalinskaya yesterday, the Chinese played some phenomenal tennis in sets two and three. Reproducing that, she might even stand a chance against Sabalenka or Gauff. But first, Zheng will have to get past Yastremska, who I still struggle to trust when it comes to consistency. Her aggressive baseline game did work beautifully since the start of the Australian Open main draw, which is already five matches more than usual.
In her quarterfinal win over Linda Noskova, the Czech teen looked extremely flat and I simply do not expect that to be the case for Zheng tonight. The newest member of the top 10 can match Yastremska’s power and arguably has the better serve. Even though she runs through patches of inconsistency herself, I rate her much higher than the Ukrainian in that department. Yastremska might complete the Raducanuesque run and become a new major champion, but I’m rather looking for a return of her inconsistent play. If errors creep in again, it could get ugly for Yastremska for a set or so. Therefore, I’m betting Zheng Qinwen on the games handicap.
Suggested Bets:
1u on Zheng Qinwen -3.0 games at 1.93 (-108) with Pinnacle
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.