Taylor Fritz did not look great in his first-round win over Facundo Diaz Acosta. The #12 seed needed five sets, only beating the Argentine 4-6, 6-3, 3-6, 6-2, 6-4. Fritz has struggled physically in the past and while it’s cooled down a bit in Melbourne, humidity is going to discomfort players on Day 4.
Hugo Gaston is not actually a world beater, but if he starts well and realizes there’s a chance to win this match, he can play himself into a special rhythm with his tricky game. The Frenchman doesn’t commit a ton of unforced errors and his variety can put opponents off their game.
In tough conditions like these with the humidity and a little breeze, paired with a slightly slower court due to the rain this morning in Melbourne, I think Fritz will be vulnerable. The odds on Gaston to win just one set are still close to a pick’em. Fritz doesn’t seem to have found his consistency this early in the season as he might also still suffer from a foot injury that had him retire both in Paris and Turin end of last season. I’ll also add half a unit on Gaston to win this match, which I think is more of a 20% than a 15% chance, even without the American retiring.
Suggested Bets:
0.5u on Hugo Gaston ML at 6.75 (+575) with Pinnacle
0.75u on Hugo Gaston +2.5 sets at 1.80 (-125) with bet365
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.