Alejandro Tabilo is coming off his first ATP title in Auckland last week. Beating Botic van de Zandschulp, Arthur Fils and Taro Daniel back-to-back-to-back and all in straight sets is mightily impressive, even if some of these players might have not given it their all the week before a Grand Slam.
Usually, I’m in the camp of not wanting my players to go deep right before a major, however that doesn’t really stress me in the opening round(s). Also, Tabilo only played one three-set match, and that took less than 90 minutes. He had a walkover in there as well and his confidence is flying high right now, drowning potential fatigue at least for now.
Aleksandar Kovacevic has been getting through qualies and his matches took a bit longer. He needed almost three hours to get past Gauthier Onclin and over two hours in his two-set tiebreak win over Vitaliy Sachko. That, as well as losing a set 1-6 to Shintaro Mochizuki aren’t exactly indicators of great form. In Brisbane the week before, he needed a tiebreak against Federico Gaio too before losing to Tomas Machac in straight sets.
The quick courts in Melbourne do help the big-hitting American’s offensive game, but his one-handed backhand can be picked on by a player like Tabilo with good tennis IQ. The Chilean’s serve and groundstrokes will also play up in these conditions and with Kovacevic still being erratic at times, courts might actually favor Tabilo too. To me, Tabilo has a significant edge when it comes to form and can also cope better with heat and humidity. So even though he’s only a few points ahead of Kovacevic in the Elo ratings, I give him a 60% chance of continuing his winning streak.
Suggested Bets:
1.25u on Alejandro Tabilo ML at 1.80 (-125) with bet365
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.