This looks to be a danger spot for Elena Rybakina.
Rybakina has a title under her belt this year after a strong showing in Brisbane last week, and looked to put in her scratchiest performance yesterday against Bucsa, and was largely aided by an above average first serve percentage masking her 39% of points won behind her second serve. Rybakina is not a player renowned for playing a lot of lead-up tennis coming into grand slams. She retired against Paolini in Cincinnati a week and a half before the US Open last year, she didn’t play the week before Wimbledon or the French Open, and lost round 1 to Kvitova in Adelaide last year. Her next most recent ‘week before a Slam’ was Eastbourne 2022, where she lost to Tsurenko before going on to win Wimbledon. Before that? She withdrew pre-match against Garcia in Sydney, the week before the 2022 Australian Open. She also has Karolina Pliskova waiting for her in round 1 in Melbourne, in what is a tricky match.
She takes on Alexandrova tonight, who impressed me last night, albeit causing me to lost my suggested bet. As I have mentioned in the past, there is a significant gulf between the best and the worst tennis of Alexandrova, however at $4.50+, her style is far easier to stomach overall. These two haven’t played since 2020, where they played 3 times (Alexandrova leads 2-1, 2-0 on hard), but I won’t be reading into that at all given the rise Rybakina has made in the years since.
Rybakina should be the favourite here, but I am really wary about this situation. Let’s take Alexandrova at the moneyline.
Suggested Bet
1.5 units Alexandrova to defeat Rybakina at $4.60 at Betfair minus commission (and Unibet)
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.