I’ve always found it pretty rudimentary analysis to suggest player A ‘wants it more’ than player B, but I’ve found myself adopting this analysis ahead of Sunday’s Brisbane International final between Grigor Dimitrov and Holger Rune.
Before this week commenced, I bookmarked the Bulgarian as someone who didn’t have the endurance to win a tour-level title at his age, despite going agonisingly close at several stages throughout 2023.
I simply had an inbuilt biased against Grigor because I assumed someone with as much media backing as he does, and as much overall popularity, couldn’t possibly be over the odds in the first tournament of the season.
Well, I was wrong.
An easy draw, paired with some scintillating play on the speedy deck at Brisbane has seen the 32-year-old veteran produce one of the better weeks of his career, and he looks cherry ripe for this finale against Rune.
Holger Rune, who sits 13 years Dimitrov’s junior, is a stunning hitter of the ball who has equally impressive athleticism.
He’s sneaky tall, and generates massive power from both wings, even though he looks like a 13-year-old.
The reason I want to go against Rune is because he’s already won four tour-level titles in his career, whereas Dimitrov hasn’t broken through at the ATP level since 2017.
It really is an astonishingly long time between drinks for someone of the Bulgarian’s caliber.
Rune was close to boiling point against Safiullin and if I’m honest, his mentality fragility is currently his achilles heel.
Rune has been good without being great this week, and even though he’s more than capable of brushing aside the head noise and producing two extremely tidy sets of tennis, I actually think Dimitrov has the overall advantage.
His performances have simply been better, and this match has grand final vibes for him in my opinion.
Rune will likely win 10-plus tournaments between now and the end of his career – Dimitrov might only win one.
I don’t have a huge opinion on the stylistic battle; they each play beautiful tennis in their own right.
But, I see Dimitrov as the less vulnerable and more motivated player.
Nothing crazy, but let’s bet.
Suggested Bet
0.75 units Grigor Dimitrov to WIN @ $1.91 with Pinnacle.
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.