How could you possibly feel the desire to bet a match involving Jelena Ostapenko AND Camila Giorgi, let alone that early in the season? Well, all the uncertainties a new season comes along with are there for these two women anyways. Both players are either hit or miss, and I can hardly imagine one of them to be in top shape on January 3rd.
Ostapenko has established herself as the 3-set queen on the women’s tour – since the 2022 US Open, 38 of her 72 matches ended in a third set (53%). Of her last 19 matches, 30 have gone the distance (63%). Considering that odds on the over 2.5 sets market are set between 2.40 (+140) and 2.60 (+160) – an implied probability of right around 40% – most of the time, that makes for a substantial long-term edge. Conveniently, her opponent Giorgi opened her new season with… a third-set win over Peyton Stearns.
Again, I would be surprised to see a consistent set let alone match from either Ostapenko or Giorgi, which is why I’m taking the over in both the first set games and the set total.
Suggested Bets:
0.5u on Over 10.5 games 1st set at 4.14 (+314) with Pinnacle
1u on Over 2.5 sets at 2.43 (+143) with Unibet
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.