Vinny’s WTA 125k Canberra Preview – Wang vs Jones

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Promising prospects are flooding the tennis tours like never before. Emerson Jones is one of them and after taking five games off Tereza Martincova – who was in the top 75 by the time – in the qualifying draw of Hobart last year, the now-15-year-old received a wild card into the main draw of the WTA 125k tournament in Canberra this time, where she’ll be taking on Wang Yafan.

The Chinese fought her way back into the top 100 last year after having paused her career due to Covid restrictions and some injuries. Her 2023 summer has been outstanding, however, losses against Haruka Kaji, Suzan Lamens or Aliona Falei – all outside of the top 200 – have shown that Wang is still vulnerable. All these three losses came in November and I’m not sure whether one of her injuries recurred, but only having played five matches since the US Open and losing three of them against inferior players doesn’t make me feel as good about Wang’s start to 2024 compared to the books who are giving her a 93% chance to beat Jones.

The Australian youngster cracked the junior top 10 in October and had her best results on hard courts, including three tournament wins – two at J300 level, the second-highest grade after Grand Slams, and one at J500 level, the highest grade after Grand Slams. On the main tour, Jones also competed in three tournaments late in 2023, all at W60 level. Here she got the better of Hiroko Kuwata, a former top-150 player, in straight sets and almost had Liu Fangzhou beaten, leading the former WTA #127 6-1 *3-0. The talent is there undoubtedly for Jones and playing at home should motivate her even further. Since we cannot be sure what state Wang Yafan is in in her first match of the season, I don’t agree on the aforementioned implied probabilities. I’m hoping for Jones to offer Wang a good fight and maybe even cause a major upset.

Suggested Bets:

0.5u on Emerson Jones to beat Wang Yafan at 9.00 with bet365

0.5u on Emerson Jones +1.5 sets at 3.50 with bet365

0.75u on Emerson Jones +6.5 games at 1.91 with bet365

Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.