Roland Garros Men’s Outright Thoughts

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Just a quick preview here to touch on the outright markets that are available for the French Open.

There is an added layer of intrigue with the draw this year given the three standout players in the outright market have all drawn in the same half. Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic both fall in the first quarter, and for mine I think Novak is the one to beat in this draw if I had to pick one player. Nadal has the physical concerns that, even if he does look solid early in the tournament, have shown they can show up at any time. Given Djokovic is relatively well rested for this time of year compared to most years, and with the best of 5 set format, things are looking good for Novak. I do respect the form of Carlos Alcaraz, however need to see him handle some best of 5 set adversity and how he handles to first week before I would consider getting involved at that price.

With Novak my focus in the top half, it’s moreso about looking for trading value in the bottom half of the draw. The third quarter appears to be dominated by Stefanos Tsitsipas and justifiably so. I am really intrigued by his first round match-up against Musetti, so will be holding off of Stef for at least a round. He is my main focus for that quarter though given Alex De Minaur is third favourite to claim the quarter and just lacks that weapon to finish off points on clay.

Which takes me to the fourth quarter. For mine, the value here appears to be Jannik Sinner. Daniil Medvedev hasn’t played enough tennis of late to appeal, and I haven’t seen a consistent level from Andrey Rublev to make his price appeal to win the quarter. For mine, Sinner possesses the most rounded game to be a threat here, and outside of the big 3 in the top half, presents as the best pre-tournament value price.

I may make some further comments on the outright markets as the tournament progresses (particularly around Tsitsipas), however I am always more than happy to chat about all things tennis on Twitter!

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Outright Selections

1 unit Novak Djokovic to win outright at $3.25 at Betfair
0.5 units Jannik Sinner to win outright at $46 at Betfair
0.5 units Jannik Sinner to win Quarter 4 at $4.33 at Bet365

Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.