I generally don’t have a strong preference to jump into low totals on the under all that often, this looks to present itself as a value spot here as Martina Trevisan and Anett Kontaveit in round 2 at Indian Wells.
Trevisan found herself in one of the longer matches in recent times on the WTA, needing 3hrs 52mins to defeat Czech Marie Bouzkova in round 1. It was an absolute rollercoaster of a match, with the two of them combining for 18 service breaks across the 6-4 6-7 6-4 scoreline. As a result, and understandably so, the serve percentages for Trevisan didn’t make for great viewing (57% first serve and 29% second serve points won). It has been a welcome turn to form of late from Trevisan. After struggling to initially back up her breakthrough Roland Garros result from 2020, Trevisan has found some form of late. She started the year with a 7-16 record through to July, and has turned that around to go 15-5 since. A large factor in that return to form was the switch to clay for a couple of successful tournaments, and it looks to have translated to a strong start here in Indian Wells through three matches.
This is a SIGNIFICANT step up in opposition quality today, as she faces the 20th ranked Anett Kontaveit. Whilst I have been critical at times of Kontaveit’s best form this year coming in the weeks leading into grand slams (when opposition isn’t at her strongest), she put together her most impressive performance across a full week in Ostrava, defeating Cirstea, Badosa, Bencic, Kvitova and Sakkari in straight sets to take the title. Her wins across that group of impressive opposition came in at an average of 18.8 games per match, which is impressive when you consider at least four of those players would have a similar game spread and total here against Trevisan as well.
This looks to be an incredibly tough task for Trevisan, as there aren’t many components here that stack up to a competitive match in my opinion. Barring a sluggish start coming off the first round bye for Kontaveit, I like the total staying under 18.5 games. Kontaveit should be able to look after her serve relatively comfortably on recent form, and should be able to consistently find her way into Trevisan service games.
Suggested Bet
1.5 units Kontaveit/Trevisan total games under 18.5 at $2.02 at Unibet
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Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.