If you read my outright preview this week, this should come as no surprise.
Belinda Bencic has gone from $2.20 to $1.85 based off their match a couple of weeks ago. In conditions that look to be a little more suited to Vondrousova, with a round 1 match with less pressure on the line, and with Bencic overperforming in a couple of key statistical categories in the gold medal match, I am happy to switch allegiances in this one.
Bencic had a +14% first serve percentage differential, converted the same number of break points from eight less opportunities, and came from a break down in each set to claim victory, including breaking for *5-3 in the decider straight out of the medical timeout. I was on Bencic that day, and whilst I did come away with a profitable result, on reflection it didn’t feel like the right side.
I won’t be going above 2.5 units here, however Vondrousova should be significantly shorter than her current price in my eyes. If Bencic can overperform in those categories again then well played to her, however I have Vondrousova as the clear favourite in the Cincinnati conditions. With less pressure in Cincy round 1 compared to the gold medal match, I anticipate a reversal of fortune here for the Czech.
2.5 units Vondrousova to defeat Bencic at $1.94 at Topsport (and $2 at Bet365)
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