This looks to be one of the more fascinating matches on the schedule for Montreal tomorrow, and I think there is a little bit of value on the Belgian as well.
Elise Mertens presents as a very difficult match-up for Camilla Giorgi for a number of reasons. I am not too concerned about the loss to Kasatkina in San Jose as she was able to extend rallies well against the Belgian (and it also means Mertens has had a break of 4 days between matches there and here). The heat did get the better of her a touch against Alexandrova in Tokyo, however the conditions are a little less oppressive here in Montreal. Her overall body of work on the hardcourts across the last couple of years stacks up, and I thought she would be giving up 3.5 to 4 games here.
Camila Giorgi has certainly impressed at stages across the course of 2021, however a high percentage of her recent victories have come against players who are bigger ball strikers. Her Tokyo campaign is a great example, with the Italian defeating Brady, Vesnina and Pliskova on her way to the quarter finals, losing in straight sets to Elina Svitolina. Giorgi has never made it out of the first round here, and I feel as though Mertens having the week in San Jose last week is a better transition into Montreal here than Giorgi just playing in Tokyo the previous week. When you consider there was a question mark around the fitness of Brady in Tokyo, and Pliskova wasn’t handling the heat overly well, and then consider who Giorgi has actually beaten on hardcourts this year, it is hard to get overly excited by her price and handicap here.
Mertens has the right mix of covering the court and counterpunching, as well as knowing when to press against a player like Giorgi. I am happy to back the Belgian in here at the -2.5 game handicap for 2.5 units. A consistent level from Mertens should result in a win and cover in my opinion. Giorgi’s ability to redline for a patch is the only concern, leading to this staking being limited at 2.5 units.
2.5 units Mertens -2.5 games vs Giorgi at $1.84 at Topsport
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