A smaller play here, with value showing up on Jessica Pegula here against Anett Kontaveit.
Like a number of recent plays, I will be siding with the player with the better long term form on the hardcourt. Let’s take a look at the form of Kontaveit on hard over the course of 2021 first. For mine, her best tennis came in the week before the Australian Open, coming out of quarantine, where she split the trophy with Ann Li due to scheduling issues. It isn’t a week that holds a lot of weight for me, along with her dominant win over the then in-form Jennifer Brady in Doha (she was burnt out from Melbourne and 90% of the Top 100 would have beaten her that day in my opinion). Outside of a couple of wins over Sorana Cirstea, there aren’t many results on hardcourt this year for Kontaveit that I would class as significant victories, and that is why her price today is a little short for me.
Cast an eye over the results from Pegula on hard this year and you will notice that since the Australian Open, it has taken a good player to knock her out of every tournament. Brady, Kvitova, Mertens, Sakkari and Bencic have been the five to beat Pegula since the start of the AO, and in that time she has been able to produce 14 victories against a wide range of styles. Whilst her clay and grass seasons weren’t overly productive, and the Olympics led to her being knocked out in round 1 by the gold medallist, she should enjoy the return to more suitable conditions in Montreal this week.
Just the 1.5 unit selection here, although I do think there is enough value in the moneyline to make a play here on Pegula. They are both returning from early Tokyo losses, so I don’t see a specific advantage for either player in terms of scheduling.
1.5 units Pegula to defeat Kontaveit at $1.81 at Unibet
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