I will keep this one short.
The shoulder issues Garin has encountered over the course of this year have come and gone, however they popped up again last week. As a result, Garin fell away in the third set of the Bastad quarter final to Federico Coria. His serve stats have left a little to be desired, and against a player that covers the court so well and extends rallies, and who has challenged Garin on both clay and grass at grand slam level in the last 12 months, he looks too short for my liking.
Marc Polmans overcame a poor start against Sandro Ehrat, saving triple set point (and then a 4th) on Ehrat’s serve before progressing 7-5 6-4. He looked comfortable in the conditions, and limited his errors in key moments. He is the type of player I would suggest Garin doesn’t want to see if he is still below 100%.
I have Polmans as value here without the shoulder concerns, however it is a nice little addition to the situation. Happy to back in the Australian at the moneyline for 1.5 units.
1.5 units Polmans to defeat Garin at $6 at Topsport