I have opposed Mikael Ymer at both grand slams this year against more powerful, capable players on the surface, and I don’t see any reason for anything different in this grass match-up with form player Felix Auger-Aliassime.
On most surfaces against more powerful players, the forehand of Ymer can find itself breaking down a little too much. Without a strong serve, he can find himself a little outmatched. 10 years ago beating Jo Tsonga in 5 sets would have been a very meaningful win for a player like Ymer, however the 2021 version of Tsonga leaves a lot to be desired, even if he did earn 28 break point chances!
FAA was clinical in round 1, and didn’t face a break point across the duration of the 6-3 6-3 6-3 win over Monteiro. He is part of my outright selections for the tournament, and I don’t see this being a large obstacle today. He can cover the court well, is good below his knees off both wings, and has the power to be aggressive the intimidate Ymer in rallying on the grass.
If the serve of Ymer was a little stronger I would be less inclined to oppose him at the game handicap today. I will take the Canadian to win well and back up his good recent form, and take the -7 games for 2 units. I think the only way Ymer covers here is with an incredibly high first serve percentage, which I am happy to risk.
2 units Auger-Aliassime -7 games vs Ymer at $1.84 at Topsport
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