I am happy to continue the theme here of backing the player with decent results in the lead-in tournaments against a player who hasn’t always shown a particularly high level on the surface across their career.
For what has been a long career, Kaia Kanepi just hasn’t played a lot of tennis on the surface. She holds a 10-13 win-loss record on the surface over the last 10 years, and whilst her one-dimensional power game can work at times, things can go haywire for her pretty quickly on the grass early in the fortnight given her movement. We haven’t seen her on tour since Roland Garros as well, which isn’t the ideal lead-in form for a grass grand slam, especially with limited form across the last 5 years to use as a guide.
Liudmila Samsonova was fortunate enough to receive a wildcard into the main draw, and it is hard to deny it was well deserved. Samsonova not only made her way through the qualifying draw in Hamburg, but she managed to walk away with the title after a come-from-behind victory over Belinda Bencic in the final. She has a fantastic mix of power and court coverage for the grass, and with a level close to that in Hamburg, she should have the clear advantage in this match-up.
I will be placing a 1 unit selection on Samsonova to win and cover the -4 game handicap.
1 unit Samsonova -4 games vs Kanepi at $1.83 at Topsport (also like -4.5 games at Pinnacle and 2-0 set betting)
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