Just a quick preview from qualifying for Wimbledon, with Thomas Fabbiano facing Tallon Griekspoor in the first round.
Grass court experience is going to play a role in this match up in my opinion, and that well and truly favours Fabbiano. For those who may not remember, the diminutive Italian pulled off some incredible upsets in the 2019 edition of Wimbledon, defeat Stefanos Tsitsipas and Ivo Karlovic in back to back 5 set matches. His form has dropped off over the course of the last 2 years, however I think his last three matches on grass in the last couple of weeks have been solid. He has a win over Nakashima in three sets, and two straight set losses to Hoang and Matusevich. Of the four sets he lost in those two matches, three were tiebreaks. Time on court on the grass will be a huge advantage here though, as his opponent in Griekspoor has only three top-level grass court matches to date for his career.
After failing to make it through to the Roland Garros main draw, Griekspoor decided to stay on the clay at Challenger level instead of travelling to the grasscourt Challenger events in the UK. It paid off for him in the short term, with a title on the clay in Bratislava. Was it to the detriment of his Wimbledon main draw chances? I think so.
Just the small play given there is a relative unknown factor around Griekspoor on grass, however from what he has produced in the past, he will need to hit a high percentage of first serves to be competitive with Fabbiano. Experience will shine through here in my opinion, and I have Fabbiano slated as a clear favourite. Well played to those who got the early odds, however there is still value here for a unit.
1 unit Fabbiano to defeat Griekspoor at $1.72 at Bet365
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