After causing one of the upsets of the tournament in the previous round, things aren’t going to be getting any easier for Philipp Kohlschreiber today.
The game handicap for Diego Schwartzman here looks to be fantastic value in my opinion. This is a completely different match-up style for Kohlschreiber, and one that doesn’t favour him in any way, shape or form today. Verdasco was well below 100%, and Karatsev struggeld to find the range on the return of serve for far too long, and ulitmately it was too little too late. The big question mark around Kohlschreiber as this stage of his career is his fitness level and his ability to dig in and grind out points consistently. He averaged 8 winners per set across his wins in the first two rounds, and against a player far and away more capable at covering the court in Schwartzman, I don’t think the stats around Kohlschreiber are strong enough to see him competitive in this match-up.
The longer the format, the more it suits Diego. Whilst he is likely to encounter some pressure from time to time on his serve (and you can’t blame him given his size and serve speed), he should be able to regularly find himself deep in return games. The way in which he defeated Bedene was impressive, and a sign of him potentially turning the corner in a place that has brought him success. Kohlschreiber doesn’t have the power to hit through DSS consistently, especially with the forecast for overcast conditions.
This looks to be a nice spot for Schwartzman at the handicap of -7 games. On match-up I am expecting at least a set of 6-2 or better, and as this match goes on, the more it will favour Diego. I will be playing this for 2 units.
Suggested Bet
2 units Schwartzman -7 games vs Kohlschreiber at $1.92 at Topsport
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