Keen to oppose both of the ATP Madrid finalists, and the WTA Madrid Champion of last week in some capacity today.
Summary of Bets
1.5 units Dellien to defeat Zverev at $12 (+1100) at Topsport/Unibet
0.5 units Millman to defeat Berrettini at $5.70 (+470) at Topsport
0.5 units Sorribes Tormo to defeat Sabalenka at $6.25 (+525) at Unibet
First, I am going to be opposing Matteo Berrettini for half a unit here by taking John Millman. Got the money with the Italian dropping the first set to Basilashvili, and after a decent length three set match, and the quick back-up, I would be surprised to see the Italian at his top level.
Whilst I am not the biggest fan of John Millman on clay, it is hard to deny he has played some decent enough tennis on the surface of late. Millman’s court coverage and fitness should be cause or a bit of concern for Berrettini. The Italian’s game is largely reliant on the serve and forehand 1-2 punch on serve, and if Millman can force the issue consistently, and where possible target the backhand of the Italian, he will be right in this match.
Suggested Bet
0.5 units Millman to defeat Berrettini at $5.70 (+470) at Topsport
The other finalist is popping up in Rome, coming off one of the bigger wins of his career, is Alexander Zverev and sitting at…$1.06.
I would have him a little longer, in the $1.17 range, however it is worth noting he is on the back-up here. The last time we saw him backing up from a final was in Miami, having won Acapulco a couple of days earlier. There, he lost to Ruusuvuori in three sets as a $1.16 shot. He also dropped a set in the first round of Cologne 2 after being in the final of Cologne 1 late last year.
Yes, he backed up his Madrid win in 2019 with a decent showing in Rome the next week, but when you consider Dellien has pummeled Munar and Bedene, then overcame a massive deficit to beat Mannarino in round 1. They aren’t the fastest conditions here in Rome, and Dellien in my opinion is worth a play at double figure odds.
Suggested Bet
1.5 units Dellien to defeat Zverev at $12 (+1100) at Topsport/Unibet
Barty struggled early in her match, and in the slower conditions here in Rome I also am happy to back in Sara Sorribes Tormo for half a unit. She nearly got the job done against Sabalenka on indoor late last year, and Sabalenka will need to be switched on to progress comfortably. Definitely capping this at 0.5 units after the Kasatkina disappointment vs Sabalenka last week.
Suggested Bet
0.5 units Sorribes Tormo to defeat Sabalenka at $6.25 (+525) at Unibet