With cool, cloudy conditions on the cards in Madrid, my focus in this match is the conditions suiting Ana Bogdan moreso than Katerina Siniakova.
I have been a big supporter of Ana Bogdan on clay since the tour resumed late last year. Things had looked to have clicked for her after a tough run when she looked brilliant in Prague, only to tear her hamstring and impact her back end of 2020. She did return to the tour 6 weeks later at Roland Garros, defeating Timea Babos in straight sets before losing to Sofia Kenin (eventual runner up) in 3 sets. She looked solid on her return to the red clay last week in Istanbul, defeating Hibino and Krejcikova in straight sets before falling to the in-form Veronika Kudermetova in 3 sets.
Katerina Siniakova is another player who looked to be a little more self-assured in the latter part of last year, however she just hasn’t found a way to deliver consistent results of later. Istanbul last week was her best performance of the year, winning two matches against Bucsa and Mladenovic in 3-setters, before falling to eventual finalist Elise Mertens 4-6 4-6, losing serve 5 times in the process.
In these cooler, cloudy conditions, Siniakova may find the going a little more tough to hit winners or force errors consistently enough to justify her price here. I don’t think the lead-in form (wins and losses) is as strong as Bogdan, and I will be taking the Romanian here for 2 units.
Suggested Bet
2 units Bogdan to defeat Siniakova at $1.72 at Bet365