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After a disappointing outing last time out in this match-up in Cagliari, I am backing in Guido Pella. What happened that day? Pella was broken from 30/0 on three occasions, and faced a break point from 30/0 as well in another game. At the time of that match, Pella’s fitness wasn’t quite at the level of what we see today. He led *4/3 40/30 on that day, was broken, failed to convert a break point, was broken again, and Gerasimov ran away with the match from there.
Fast forward a couple of weeks and Pella looks to be progressively improving his form. After losing to Gerasimov, he then lost to Pouille in Monte Carlo, before upping his game in the slightly more suitable, heavier conditions in Barcelona last week. As a $3.50 underdog, he led Kei Nishikori by a set and 4-2, and served for the match at *6-5 before falling in three sets. He earned 16 break point opportunities for the match, however was unable to convert 12 of them.
Gerasimov’s only win since their last meeting came against an unfit Jo Wilfried Tsonga. I don’t think he has made any more inroads into his clay game since these two met last. With Pella’s odds significantly improved this time around (based off their head to head), I like him to win this match, and cover the -1.5 game handicap for 2.5 units.
2.5 units Pella -1.5 games vs Gerasimov at $1.86 at Unibet