After winning as an underdog yesterday against Shelby Rogers in what was a friendlier match-up for her, it looks to have been a slight over-reaction to that win of Coco Gauff yesterday looking at the odds today.
For a while my preference with Gauff has been to back her in against bigger strikers of the ball. I didn’t back her in yesterday, however Gauff did a great job of coming from a set and break down, as well as a break down in the third set to win. Gauff hit a high percentage of first serves, which is important given her second serve isn’t quite at the level of the rest of her game yet, and Rogers became too erratic in sets to be able to finish off the match.
Belinda Bencic has had a charmed run to the semi final compared to others, however it has come along at just the right time for her. First round bye, into Misaki Doi, into Storm Sanders. Bencic is yet to drop a set, and this again looks to be a decent style of match-up for Bencic to build on her last two matches.
Confidence can be a funny thing in this game, and in some instances players can regain it quicker than others. You could tell at the Australian Open that even though she managed to score two wins, she was still waiting for everything to click again in her game after being away for a while. Gauff doesn’t have the game to blow Bencic off the court, and Bencic won’t produce the same error rate that Gauff benefitted from again Rogers yesterday. Bencic’s return game has looked exceptional this week, and unless Gauff finds a very high first serve here, things look tough for her.
I think there has been an overreaction to Gauff’s win yesterday. Whilst her form when she gets to this stage of a tournament is impressive, I don’t think she warrants favouritism in this one, and I am happy to back Bencic here for 1.5 units. She is value at this staking down to $1.90.
1.5 units Bencic to defeat Gauff at $2.00 (+100) at Bet365 (value to $1.90)