I was thoroughly unconvinced by Karolina Pliskova when watching her live the other day against Danielle Collins, and I do feel as though she is vulnerable here as a slight favourite in the conditions.
These two practiced together quite a bit during the quarantine period, and Muchova fits the mould of the type of player that I am keen to oppose Pliskova with as an underdog. Muchova has had two matches to get a feel for playing against pace on these courts, having defeated Jelena Ostapenko and Mona Barthel to reach the third round. She won both matches in straight sets, hitting over 60% of first serves in each match, a crucial component that will need to be replicated today against Pliskova.
The Pliskova/Bajin relationship has kicked off with some solid performances, however having sat through her match live with Collins, neither were displaying any impressive form across the match. Pliskova tightened up multiple times by double faulting down break point, and Collins was unable to capitalize in the minutes that followed either of these occasions.
Whereas Collins is more of a flat out aggression type of player, Muchova can play with a bit more accuracy, which is important when wanting Pliskova to have to cover every inch of the court. Pliskova got the better of Muchova at the Australian Open in 2019, however a lot of water has gone under the bridge since, with Muchova a main draw qualifier at that stage of her career. Look for Muchova to take advantage of the couple of weeks she was able to spend practicing with Pliskova to get a handle on her serve and pace, and progress to the fourth round.
1.5 units Muchova to defeat Pliskova at $2.28 (+118) at Topsport