I can’t in good conscience let Coco go around as this much of an underdog in conditions that I think will suit her better for the most part.
I was quite critical of Gauff when I saw her live against Teichmann last week, however her ability to learn from the adversity, and then respond with a dominant win against the same opponent the following week was incredibly impressive. For all the weaknesses that are still evident in her game (more than understandable for her age), I do think they are easier to cover against a player like Svitolina. Against particularly power players her second serve can be targeted, and she also can be a little outgunned against the most powerful of players.
Given the surface plays a little slower in the evenings, it’ll also make it harder for Svitolina to hit through Gauff. Gauff’s best performance at Melbourne Park came on a night session, where she defeated Naomi Osaka last year. When you look at the form of Svitolina over the fortnight at Melbourne Park, it doesn’t instil a lot of confidence in my opinion. She beat Petkovic in blustery conditions, beat Ostapenko in 3 sets and lost to Mertens in a score line that flattered her. She then beat Bouzkova in straight sets, saving a set point in the second. In the slower, calmer conditions, will she be so fortunate?
I don’t think so. I’m happy to back in Coco to cause the night session upset as a decent sized underdog. If she can play within herself and hit her spots, she should have every chance tonight.
2 units Gauff to defeat Svitolina at $2.65 (+165) at Unibet