I much prefer to side with Angie Kerber in this match-up on what I’ve seen from both players recently. The Sakkari matchup was a little tricky for her compared to the bigger striking of Siniakova and Jabeur to start the week, however Bernarda Pera is a better matchup for Kerber’s game.
The lead-in form of the German is far for favourable, as I am not so sure the wins over Gadecki and Konta are going to hold up on comparison when this fortnight is all said and done. The first set from Pera is going to be important, as she has struggled statistically when coming from behind recently. The variety of being a larger striking left hander is lost for Pera in facing another left hander as well, and given her inconsistency of late I cannot see the benefits in supporting Pera at the 4.5 handicap.
The grand slam experience and recent form both favour Kerber, and with a more favourable match up style for her today she should be able to cover the handicap of 4.5 games.
1 unit Kerber -4.5 games vs Pera at $1.91 (-110) at Unibet